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Daily Economic Update

Wednesday, August 20th

There was some disappointing news on retail sales coming in flat versus last month’s .2% gain and the estimate of a  .2% gain. Motor vehicles slipped .2% on top of Junes .3% decline. Weakness in retail sales was seen by a .5% drop in general merchandise and smaller declines were seen in furniture and home furnishings along with electronics and appliance stores. Clothing and accessories with health and beauty personal care were up 0.4%. Small increases were seen in food and beverage stores along with sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores.

Business inventories are showing some sign of weakness as retail sales slow down and  inventories rise 0.4% on top of last month's 0.5%, the estimate was a 0.4% increase.  I am not concerned with this yet because the stock to sales ratio still stands unchanged at 1.29. However, if we were to see a another rise in business inventories for July this could be a problem in manufacturing which would have to slowdown. This could hurt the third quarter GDP by a couple of points. No reason to dump your stock portfolio yet, but stay tuned for further economic developments that I'll be discussing over the next 30 to 60 days.

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