SMART INVESTING NEWSLETTER
Oil Demand, Understanding Compounding, AI Stocks, Double and Triple Taxation, Apple Phones, California’s Solar, Writing Checks & Gambling on Video Games
Brent Wilsey • December 27, 2024
We could see a huge increase in oil demand in 2025!
With oil trading under $70 a barrel, gas prices have continued to fall. But unless the world starts producing more oil in 2025, we could see a big reversal in the price of oil. I base that on an estimate from the International Energy Agency as they expect a huge increase in the demand of oil. They are estimating oil consumption of 1.1 million barrels per day, which would be a 31% increase from the 840,000 barrels in 2024. I know from recent reports that there is concern that if we pump more oil, the price could drop dramatically causing difficulties and lower profits for oil companies. However, if the International Energy Agency is correct on their 31% increase in oil demand, that could actually cause shortages at certain times throughout the year. Also, it is somewhat amazing with how long electric vehicles have been out that they still don’t seem to be having at this time much of an impact. I do know that car manufacturers are having some difficulty selling their inventory of electric vehicles. I believe part of this is because of the abundance of oil on the market and low gas prices. Is it possible that we got too aggressive trying to build and force consumers into electric vehicles? What happens if in 2025 the federal tax incentives for electric vehicles go away?
Understanding compounding is why you should be cautious about the overvalued market!
Investing is great when everything is going up and the emotions tell you to stay the course because that will continue to happen. For two years now the S&P 500 has posted really strong gains because of a heavy concentration in the Mag Seven. There are now investors who say the market could be up another 20% in 2025. In our portfolio we will continue to remain cautious next year as we understand that compounding can work for you, but also against you. What do we mean by that? Let’s say that for three years the S&P 500 is up 20% per year, your $100,000 investment would grow to $172,800 because of compounding. You probably would feel pretty good about that and think it will to continue to increase. While it is possible it’s like riding a roller coaster. What I mean by that is if you’ve ridden a roller coaster you know as it gets to the very top, it slows down and it feels like it’s almost going to stop, then you go over that peak and you hit that big decline. That happened in 1935 and 1936 as big gains were followed by a 39% decline in 1937. I did not want to use 2002 when the S&P 500 had lost almost 50% of its value. I thought I would use something else from history that was not the worst-case scenario. Back to the three-years of 20% gains and a portfolio value of $172,800. If we saw a 39% loss again like 1937, your account value will drop all the way down to $108,864. You might be questioning how can that be? It’s because as your account grew in value the percent decline is now on a bigger amount than the initial $100,000 you started with. So in other words after four years of investing, you’re $100,000 investment was only up 8.9%. This is why for long-term investors I can continue to stay the course on a more conservative investment style and not try to figure out what the top is for many of these expensive companies. The other problem as well is once people lost 37% of the money on their investment, they would probably leave the stock market for years missing future gains. I can tell you many people think they know where the top is and they’ll get out in time, but unfortunately many people stay at the party too long. I can tell you managing money through the tech boom and bust many people thought the party would continue in the early 2000’s and they did not foresee the major declines that we saw during the tech bust.
AI stocks performed well in 2024, there are problems in 2025 that could cause a reversal
It is estimated that for every dollar invested on the AI infrastructure, revenue of four dollars needs to be produced. The AI leader so far has been Microsoft with their Copilot product that has a cost of $360 per user each year. At first glance that doesn’t sound too bad until you realize you still have to pay for the other software at a cost of anywhere from a low of $72 to over $650 per year. At $1000 is the AI expense worth the reward? Currently, there are places where you can get AI for free, will people be willing to pay for AI when they’re used to getting it at no expense? In a combined survey on using AI, 32% of respondents had used it in the previous week. This is a fast adoption rate compared to the Internet or the introduction of the PC. However, when asked what services they were using, most were using free services like open AI’s ChatGPT or Google’s Gemini. If people won’t pay directly for AI, then the companies will have to somehow monetize it through some means of advertising. Another big question is will AI really produce results in productivity? In the last couple of years, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported labor productivity has risen at an annual rate of 2.3%, which is 3/10 of a percent higher than the historical average. To make AI valuable we would have to see labor productivity increase to at least 2.5 to 2.6%. One question on many people’s mind is will AI replace a lot jobs? The answer to that question is it will replace jobs, but the hope is new jobs and opportunities will be created that we have not even thought of yet. They will likely require creativity, judgment and decision-making. I still think AI will be used and it is not going anywhere, but I worry the hype has carried many stocks to excessive valuations. 2025 may be a prove it year for AI and if we don’t see progress towards monetization those AI stocks could struggle!
Beware of Double and Triple Taxation
At the end of the year, it is helpful to check where your income stands so any last-minute adjustments can be made. These might be Roth conversions, IRA withdrawals, capital gain harvesting, capital loss harvesting, charitable donations, or retirement contributions to name a few. Before making any adjustments though, you need to fully understand the tax consequence of the transaction. Income activity like IRA withdrawals or pensions are fairly straightforward as they are considered ordinary income on the federal and state level. Income from Social Security or long-term capital gains and qualified dividends can be a little more complicated. Of the Social Security you receive, some is taxable and some is tax free. At most, 85% of Social Security benefits is reportable as income but it can be as low as 0%. The more other income you have, the more your Social Security will be taxed. Long-term capital gains and qualified dividends are subject to a different set of tax brackets and the tax is calculated after ordinary income sources are considered. Depending on your level of income, capital gains and dividends fall into either a 0%, 15%, or 20% bracket. What this means is by making one adjustment that increases your income, you could trigger more of your Social Security to be taxed and push capital gains into a higher tax bracket, resulting in a triple taxation event. For example, Roth conversions are popular at the end of the year, especially when taxable income is in the 12% tax bracket, but this doesn’t mean everyone should do it. You might be making a conversion that is taxed at 12%, but that also results in thousands of additional dollars from Social Security that were tax free to become taxable, and the income from the conversion and Social Security push capital gains that were in the 0% bracket into the 15% bracket. When added up that conversion at 12% ended up being taxed at over 37% because of the chain reaction of taxes, not including any state income taxes. In this situation it probably makes sense to find ways to reduce income instead. Year-end tax adjustments can be very helpful, but you want to make the right adjustments based on your situation.
Will Apple will be coming out with new phone designs in 2026?
While Apple stock continues to climb, the revenue does not. In fiscal year 2024 revenue didn’t even grow 1%. It’s not since 2021 did the company see good sales growth because of the release of the 5G network. It’s also important to point out much of these sales were subsidized by the carriers. The last major design change for the iPhone was back in 2017 when they came out with the X. Apple is now talking about designing foldable iPhones, which sounds exciting until one realizes that foldable phones made up just 1.5% of the total smartphone market this year and they had a one percent decline in shipments in the third quarter. Obviously, Apple is hoping that this will reinvigorate sales because the AI features so far have not really caught on as they are being rolled out slowly. There are estimates for the release of the folding iPhone in 2026, but experts say they’ll probably need another year to address the technical challenges. I also wonder if Apple is going to change the charging system again so that iPhone users will have to get another charging system. For investors the big question is can Apple stock stay at current levels without much change to their phones? While other areas of the business have grown, iPhones still account for about 50% of the overall revenue. We continue to say Apple is a great company with good products and I even use them myself, but is a slow growth rate and waiting another two maybe three years for a new design worth paying the high multiples that the stock is currently trading at? For me I’d say no!
California is paying other states to take our power generated by solar
California has an aggressive plan that in 20 years all electricity will come from clean energy like solar. In a report a few years ago it was estimated that the state needed an additional 70 gigawatts of industrial solar farms for a carbon-free electrical grid. This is large amount of land that would cover between 300 to 450 more square miles. The sad part is the solar farms are producing more electricity than we can use now and the electric grid has been paying surrounding states like Arizona and New Mexico to take that energy. In 2023, Arizona had a $69 million savings thanks to California. This savings was given to the customers in Arizona as a credit on their utility bill. I’m sure many states/people are laughing at California. Also taking advantage of the situation are electric traders, such as banks and hedge funds who purchase electricity during the day when it is at its lowest. Sometimes they are even paid to take it and then sell it at night when prices are higher. Who can blame them for taking advantage of the situation, but those savings should be going to Californians who pay some of the highest utility rates in the country. In fact, California’s electric rates are roughly twice the nation’s average and only Hawaii has higher rates. Having solar on your roof does help, but if you notice they do get you on other areas of your bill because you are helping pay for the California solar system that the state is building. It would be so nice if the people who ran California ran it as a business. If there is more energy produced generating a large supply, we should see prices decline, but unfortunately that is not happening. We would all benefit from normal market conditions cutting out the traders and the hedge funds along with other states benefiting from the mismanagement of our electric grid. But we live in California, so that probably will not happen.
Stop writing checks before you get scammed
I used to love writing checks and handing them to people or mailing them. I always thought it felt tangible and safe. Unfortunately, it seems no matter what you do these days scammers have found ways to scam people. Check fraud was up almost 400% last year thanks to message boards like Telegram that show people how to steal checks and then deposit them in bank accounts by using check washing with some household chemicals. Supposedly, you can use these chemicals to wash out the amount and the recipient. Check writing is still used by many people according to the Federal Reserve. Using the most recent data from a couple years ago, it was revealed there’s 30 checks written per person in the United States. That leaves a lot of checks in mailboxes floating around for criminals to pick up and wash. The scammers have found a way around bank requirements to make customers money available before it is verified by the banks. Even the big banks have been victim of this, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America who have been mentioned on the message boards 25,000 to 30,000 times. Before I learned about this scam, I was not a big fan of using Venmo or Zelle. However, now I ask everyone that I used to write a check to, can I Venmo you the money? Beware there are problems with that as well. If you use these electronic services, be sure to move slowly and verify everything because once you transfer that money, you’ll probably never see it again if you accidentally sent it to the wrong person!
Is your child or grandchild gambling on the video game Counter-Strike?
I’ve always thought that video games were a waste of time for young kids. They should be out playing sports or socializing with friends. Unfortunately, nowadays, the video game time kids are playing has turned into gambling. If you’ve heard your child talk about skins they could be trading those on third-party marketplaces for crypto and other world currencies. There’s a name for it called skin gambling and it’s getting kids hooked on gambling before they even turn 18. Some kids could be gambling as young as 13 years old. Counter-strike is operated by Valve Corporation, which is based in Bellevue, Washington. If you do a search on any of the Social Media sites like Facebook, Instagram or even do a Google search, you will start to see the beginning of how kids are getting hooked on these gambling sites. One popular game for gambling is coin flips where two people put up skins of equal value and there’s a 50-50 chance of doubling their money or losing it all based on one coin flip. It is so simple that it is very addicting because you think you have a 50-50 chance of winning. However, since there’s an infinite number of flips, one could run out of money before correctly hitting the flip of the coin they were betting on. There are many times hundreds of thousands of online viewers are watching the game and you even have star players that are sponsored by skin gambling sites. It is surprising how innocent this looks as a video game until one digs deeper into how skins are purchased and used for gambling!
Jobs market remains in a good spot Headline nonfarm payrolls increased 139k in the month of May, which was above the estimate of 125k, but below April’s reading of 147k. A big negative in the report was the fact that March and April saw negative revisions that caused payrolls in those month to decline by a combined 95k versus what was previously reported. Even with that, if you zoom out and look at the big picture the economy is still adding jobs at a healthy rate given the fact that the unemployment rate has remained at 4.2%. I would also say it was a big positive that the private sector saw good growth since federal government payrolls declined by 22k in the month of May and are now down by 59k since January. I still expect losses to accelerate in the coming months for government payrolls since employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are still counted as employed. Areas that saw major growth in the month included health care, which added 62k jobs and leisure and hospitality, which added 48k jobs in the month. Many of the other major industries saw little change. Wages were also positive in the month for workers as average hourly earnings grew 3.9% compared to last year. This was above the forecast of 3.7% and last month’s reading of 3.8%. I believe this is a good level for wage growth as it is healthy for workers, but not overly concerning on the inflation front. I would say this jobs report did little to change the narrative on the economy as it showed it remains healthy, but it definitely appears to be slowing. Facebook scams are out of control There’s no way of tracking the exact number of scams or the dollar amount lost from scams on Facebook and Instagram, but JP Morgan Chase said between the summers of 2023 and 2024 they accounted for nearly half of all reported scams on Zelle. An internal analysis from 2022 found that 70% of newly active advertisers on the platform are some forms of scam or low-quality products. Meta, the owner of Facebook and Instagram, does over $160 billion in advertising and is hesitant to put any restrictions that could prevent growth in their ad business. In 2024, the Wall Street Journal discovered documents that advertisers can be hit with anywhere between eight and 32 automated strikes for financial fraud before their accounts are banned. On top of that, Facebook Marketplace, which is its online secondhand market, has now passed Craigslist as the most heavily used platform for free classified ads and it has become a great place for scams. The scam that most people fall for is the sale of pets. This comes even though Meta bans the peer-to-peer sale of live animals. Meta has as argued in court it is not their legal responsibility to deal with the issue. Section 230 in the US telecommunications law relieves platforms like Facebook and Instagram from liability of users who create their own content. This is currently being tested by an Australian mining billionaire because Facebook failed to remove fraudulent investment advertisements that used his image and AI cloned voice. Hopefully he wins the case. In the meantime, I would have to recommend that people stay away from using Facebook or Instagram for buying from advertisers on their platforms because you could be dealing with someone from China, Vietnam, or the Philippines, who have stolen pictures of a familiar company that you think you know, even including its address. And once you give them your credit card information or any other financial information, they have you and your problems will begin. Sell gold and buy platinum I thought you might be thinking you’ve done so well buying gold and you may think it’s still going higher so just stay the course, but platinum has been left behind for the last 11 years. Back in 2014, platinum was at $1500 an ounce compared with gold at $1300 per ounce. Fast forward to today and gold is around $3300 per ounce and platinum has gone down in value to about $1000. Platinum actually has real demand as about 40% of the demand comes from catalytic converters which are a hot commodity, we just recently wrote about how April car sales were up 10%. Platinum supply is about 7 million ounces on an annual basis, but it is predicted by the world platinum investment council that in 2025 it may only be 5.4 million ounces. Compare that with gold which will have about 100 million ounces mined this year. Perhaps platinum could be the next shiny metal that performs well. There is even talk that Chinese buyers who are priced out of gold are now starting to invest in platinum. If you like precious metals, you may want to do some research on platinum. It could be on sale for now. To be clear I don’t buy these precious metals, but given the choice between gold and platinum, platinum definitely seems more interesting at these levels. Job openings report shows there is still plenty of work out there The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, also known as the JOLTs report, showed job openings remained strong as they increased 191,000 from the month of March and totaled 7.4 million. This also beat the expectation of 7.1 million and provides further evidence that the labor market remains healthy. Job openings did decline by 228,000 or about 3% compared to last year, but there are still 1.03 available jobs for every unemployed worker. As we have discussed, we are looking for the labor market and economy to continue to soften, but that does not mean it is weak, it just means we could be progressing at a slower rate. As with other hard economic data, the next few months will be more telling about how the tariffs are impacting business decisions. This JOLTs report was from the month of April, when tariffs were just beginning. I still believe the data will hold up alright in the coming months even in the face of these trade negotiations that are occurring across the world. Office space may be harder to find in the coming years For the first time in at least 25 years, office conversions and demolitions will exceed new construction, which means there will be less space available. CBRE Group found that across the largest 58 U.S. markets, 23.3 million square feet of space will be demolished or converted to other uses by the end of this year while just 12.7 million square feet of space is expected to be completed by developers in those markets. We do have an office REIT in our portfolio and they recently talked about how leasing has continued to exceed expectations. I continue to believe the office has a valuable place in business and we have continued to see more and more companies implement return to office mandates. With less supply out there and demand remaining strong, we should see owners of office space benefit from stabilizing rents and increasing prices in the coming years. On the other side of coin, I have continued to express concern about the long term dynamics for multifamily housing due to the construction boom in the space and potential oversupply. It’s not just the new construction though as developers have another 85 million square feet of office space being readied for conversion in the next few years. This comes after office conversations to multifamily residences that have generated roughly 33,000 apartments and condominiums since 2016. It is estimated by CBRE that each conversion on average produces around 170 units. As a contrarian investor I many times like to go against the grain. With that being said I am definitely much more interested in the office space over the residential space at this point in time. Computers in our brain may not be that far away It’s a scary thought, but there are already people with brain computers and interfaces that have been installed. It is currently less than 100 people to date and it is estimated that will double within the next year. Businesses in this field are called neurotech companies. It is projected in the next 15 years or so this will be a $1 billion a year market. Some of the designs are an implant of a tubular mesh of electrons that will run through a major blood vessel in the brain like a stent. There are different designs by different companies and some have over 1000 electrodes spread across 1.5 centimeters. The benefits of having these installed in your brain will be figuring out which medication works best for that particular brain chemistry. Going beyond that are thoughts to control vehicles, limbs, and exoskeletons along with generating speech directly from thought. There are about 12 small companies now working on this and I believe most will go probably go broke before they make it big. I’m sure some will be acquired by big medical technology companies or device makers that will take it to the next level. Don’t let the future scare you as it’s going to come anyways, but I do wonder with all the positives of this technology what negatives will there be as well? Will cybercriminals be able to hack into your brain? Or on the bright side will your spouse really know what you’re thinking. I think that’s a good thing, right? The growth in gambling might become a problem Gambling has been around forever, but you always had to go to a casino or have your own bookie to take your bets. This mostly occurred in person. Now with companies like DraftKings and FanDuel it is far too easy for people to get addicted to gambling on their phone. In 2024 the revenue from gambling was $71.9 billion. Now with the ease of cell phones, 48% of American men under 50 have an online gambling account and wager about $150 billion a year on sports alone. It’s now been seven years since the Supreme Court ruled that nationwide sports betting is legal. It’s no surprise the problem of gambling addiction is starting to appear and the journal of behavioral addictions says smartphone apps carry higher addiction risk than traditional gambling at casinos and horse tracks. That’s no surprise to me because of the ease of holding in your hand this gambling tool. For someone that has a gambling problem, it takes about seven years for them to start to realize they have a problem. The numbers now show this explosive growth as companies like FanDuel saw its revenue jump from $2.8 billion in 2019 to nearly $17 billion today. DraftKings is also seeing huge growth as revenue was $432 million in 2019 and now it is at $6.3 billion. I had a feeling the stocks would do well but would not invest in them because of the nature of their business and also, they had no earnings at the time. For those that did gamble with the stocks, DraftKings shares are up 156% over the last three years because of the massive growth in this industry. Unfortunately, in the next few years, problems could start showing up in the healthcare industry. This belief is based on an 11-year study that ended in 2016 from the National Council on Problem Gambling that showed 20% of gamblers with this disorder attempted suicide. According to the Journal of Gambling Business and Economics just under 6% of those who gamble on US sports generate 80% of the betting revenue. As the growth of gamblers grows, more people will be betting and that 6% number will likely rise. Financial Planning: Retirement Savings Rate Hits Record High; How Do You Compare? The average 401(k) savings rate, including employee contributions and employer matches, has reached a record high of 14.3%, nearing the widely recommended target of 15% for a secure retirement. This milestone reflects growing awareness of the importance of long-term financial planning, especially as traditional pensions continue to disappear. However, the ideal savings rate isn’t one-size-fits-all. Individuals who begin saving in their early 20s may be able to retire comfortably with a lower contribution rate, while those who delay investing until their 30s or 40s often need to save well above 15% to catch up. Starting early allows compound interest to do more of the heavy lifting, highlighting the value of consistent, proactive saving from a young age. For example, someone who starts at the beginning of their career might be okay saving as little as 7% of their income and still retire on time. This means if they save the minimum necessary to receive the full company match (5% contribution + 4% match = 9%) they likely will be fine. However, waiting until their 40’s may require a savings rate of 25% or more to produce the same retirement income.
First Time Homebuyers Hit a Record Low With the high cost of housing and higher interest rates, people trying to get their first home dropped to a record low around 23% in 2024. The average age of the first-time homebuyer has increased 10 years over the historical average to 38 years old. The median income is now $97,000 and the first-time home buyers are coming up with an average down payment of 9% of the value of the home. Many of these young buyers are using FHA loans, which require a very small down payment and according to research roughly 30% of all FHA mortgages have a debt service ratio of over 50%. This means more than half of these buyers’ incomes is going toward servicing debt. This could be a hard pill to swallow for young buyers with not much money left over for luxuries like vacations and new cars. However, if when they buy the home, they understand that if they really tighten their belts for the next three to four years, they will probably be fine. New home builders are doing what they can to try and get rid of the largest inventory of unsold homes on their lots since 2009. The median price of a new home is currently less than one percent higher than the median price of existing properties, which historically has seen a 17% premium. The home builders are using profits from their homes to buy down mortgages. Even though the 30-year mortgage was recently around 6.8%, home builders can buy these mortgages down which led buyers of new homes to a rate around 5%. Buying down these rates has cost home builders about 8% of the purchase price of the home. This reduces their profits but better than the alternative of sitting on unsold homes with a carrying cost for the builder. I don’t see this situation getting better anytime soon because I’m not looking for a large decrease in mortgage rates and incomes over the next year will probably increase somewhere around 3 to 4%. We continue to believe the rapid increase in the price of homes over the last few years will not last and it will now take some time to get back to normal market. Maybe we will see a better real estate market in 2027 or 2028. Is Bitcoin coming to your 401k? I have been concerned with bitcoin and crypto as a whole for several years for many reasons including fraud, illicit activity, and the fact that there is really no way to derive an intrinsic value for it since there is no earnings, cash flow, or anything really backing the asset class. I was disappointed to see the current Labor Department removed language that cautioned employers to exercise “extreme care” before making crypto and related investments available to their workers. They cited “serious concerns” about the prudence of exposing investors’ retirement savings to crypto given “significant risks of fraud, theft, and loss.” While this isn’t necessarily a full-on endorsement for placing crypto in 401k plans, it definitely seems like the administration is continuing on its path to try and normalize crypto as an established asset class. Even with this change in language I would be surprised to see a huge surge in cryptocurrencies within 401k plans. Ultimately, ERISA bestows a fiduciary duty on employers and company officials overseeing 401k investments and that means legally employers must put the best interests of 401(k) investors first and act prudently when choosing which investments to offer (or not offer). Given the extreme volatility within crypto I believe it would be a huge risk for these companies to offer it as it could open them up to lawsuits if there are major declines. We’ll have to see what other changes are made as time progresses, but I don’t believe crypto has any place within a 401k plan at this time. Inflation report shows continued progress The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is also known as PCE and is the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, showed an annual increase of just 2.1%. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, showed a gain of 2.5%. Both results were 0.1% below their respective estimates. Overall, inflation has continued to cool and is now quite close to the Fed’s 2% target. The question that remains is how will tariffs ultimately impact inflation? An economist from Pantheon Macroeconomics said that he believed core PCE would peak later this year between 3.0% and 3.5%, if the current mix of tariffs remained in place. I would say it is difficult to forecast the tariff impact since we don’t know what will ultimately be passed on to the end consumer. It will definitely be interesting to see what numbers look like in the coming months, but ultimately, I believe most of the concerns around inflation are overblown and even if the rate for PCE is around 3%, I don’t see that as being problematic for the economy. Financial Planning: What it Means to be an Accredited Investor An accredited investor is someone who meets specific income or net worth thresholds—such as earning over $200,000 annually ($300,000 with a spouse) or having over $1 million in net worth excluding their home—and is allowed to invest in private securities offerings not registered with the SEC. These investments, which include private REITS, private equity, hedge funds, and startups, often promise high returns but carry significant risks such as illiquidity, limited transparency, and the potential for total loss. While many of these offerings are only available through fiduciary advisors—who are legally obligated to act in their clients’ best interest—investors must still exercise caution. Fiduciary duty applies only in certain contexts (such as investment advice) and may not extend to related areas like insurance or commission-based products. Additionally, what qualifies as “acting in your best interest” is often subjective and open to interpretation. Working with a fiduciary does not guarantee protection, and investors should remain vigilant, ask questions, and independently evaluate any recommendation. Also, private investments aren’t necessary better than public investments, so just because you qualify as an accredited investor doesn’t mean you should be investing in private securities. Is a buyer’s market coming to the housing market? Interest rates on mortgages have stayed pretty much above 6% since September 2022 and it doesn’t look like they’ll be falling anywhere close to 6% anytime soon. But for those looking to buy a new home, we could be looking at a homebuyer’s market soon. It’s not here yet, but there are signs that the number of homes listed for sale this spring has increased, while sales have actually decreased. Nationally, existing home sales are down 2.4% through April while the number of properties for sale has increased by 5.1%. Unfortunately for buyers, prices for homes are still high and mortgage rates have increased which has led to affordability still being a major problem. On a national level about 20% of home sellers cut prices on their homes in April, which was the largest amount of price cuts since April 2017. Zillow expects a national drop on average of 1.4%, but areas where there is higher priced homes and rising listings, the drops could be larger. Areas where there are second home owners could also see declines as many of them are sitting on a lot of equity in that house and they may not be using it as much as they thought they would. This could lead them to take advantage of that equity and sell at a reasonable price. Unfortunately, for the entry-level homebuyer competition is still fairly high and supply remains quite low, but that could change in the future as well. If you’re a buyer waiting to buy a home, I would be patient and keep your down payment in a high-yield money market, which should pay you around 4% while you wait to get that home that you want. Patience pays off in investing and home buying. The U.S. is far ahead of Europe in Business People love to travel to Europe to see history and maybe drink the French or the Italian wine, but when it comes to growing the economy Europe is far behind the US. Going back 50 years the US has created 241 new companies worth more than $10 billion, Europe pales in comparison creating only 14 new companies of that size over the last 50 years. Europe continues to fall behind the U.S. in productivity, 35 years ago the average EU worker produced 95% of what Americans did. Fast-forward to 2025 and Europeans now produce less than 80% of an American worker. It’s surprising that even though Europe has 449 million people, which is over 100 million more than the US, their economy is now 1/3 smaller than the US economy. Investors and entrepreneurs in Europe say the obstacles that prevent growth are a timid and risk adverse business culture, strict labor laws, regulations that stifle any type of growth and a smaller pool of venture capital. It is estimated that European businesses spend 40% of their IT budgets on complying with regulations. Also, many of these companies are confused as 2/3 of European businesses don’t understand their obligation under the EU AI act. I suggest to take this as an important history lesson for younger people who may think that more government is good. More government does not produce a growing economy and if you and your children want a higher standard living going forward, it takes hard work and competition, not government regulation and control. Crypto Exchange Kraken is going to offer digital tokens backed by stocks I can’t believe that this is happening, but it is and crypto exchange company Kraken said it would occur within the next few weeks. The company will be rolling out digital tokens that are supposed to be back by stocks such as Apple, Tesla, Nvidia and other popular companies. This also includes ETFs, like the SPDR S&P500 and the SPDR gold fund. These will not be available to US investors, but it is instead for other countries around the world to invest in US stocks. This is supposed to be easier than the current way of investing in US stocks through local brokerages. These digital tokens will be referred to as Xstocks And will be on the Solana Block chain platform. It is expected that Kraken’s partner, Backed Finance, will acquire new shares of stock as these tokens are sold to back up the value of the digital tokens. Trading of these digital tokens will be allowed 24 hours a day seven days a week. I’m concerned this could cause extreme volatility for some of these stocks as they may need to be purchased in large quantities each week day morning based on the activity that occurred while the market was closed. I think some crazy things could happen. I see huge concerns here and lots of room for fraud as it could be discovered the digital tokens are not backed by the correct number of shares. Maybe my thinking is old-fashioned but just seems to me if I’m going to invest in a company, I want to actually hold shares in that company not have someone acting as a middleman. I think unfortunately people trading these digital tokens don’t care about true investing and it’s just going to be more speculation. I do hope they fail like the crypto company Binance did when they tried the same thing back in 2021. The regulators around the world felt like Binance did not have the correct licenses to do this. But don’t worry, Kraken is regulated by the Wyoming division of banking and has a special purpose depository banking license. Well, that should make investors feel a whole lot better, right? The History of FICO Most people have heard of a FICO score, however I’m sure most have no idea how it was established and also that it is a public company that has performed very, very well over its history. The company was started back in 1956 by an engineer named Bill Fair and a mathematician named Earl Isaac. Each put in $400 of startup capital and it took two years to sell their first credit score. The name of the company is Fair Isaac company, which is where they came up with the FICO score. 31 years later on July 1987, it went public and sold 1.4 million shares at $9.50 per share. The stock now trades around $1650 for a total return of about 17,200%. There are very few investments that could come even close to that type of return. The company does not collect money directly from the customers who receive their credit score, it generally comes through application fees and is paid by the lenders. The company has what is known as inelastic demand, which unlike many other companies they can raise prices and the customers will still pay for their service. Sounds like a little bit of a monopoly to me. They are used by 90% of US lenders and do over 10 billion credit decisions a year. They do over $30 billion a year in sales with only 3700 employees. The free cash flow of the company increased by 30% to $607 million last year and it bought back $822 million of stock. The company sounds very attractive; however, it trades it around 40 times forward earnings, which is rather pricey and the slowdown in the real estate market could hurt the company going forward.
The US just received a downgrade to its credit rating, should you worry? Last week, Moody’s announced it downgraded the United States sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1. While a downgrade is important to understand and can have negative consequences for interest rates, this downgrade did not seem too problematic. I mainly say that because Moody’s was the last major credit rating agency to have the U.S. at the highest possible rating. The first downgrade carried the most weight in my opinion as it had the highest shock value. Standard & Poor’s was the first to move in August 2011 and the stock market fell 6.66% the session after the announcement. Fitch then lowered its rating on U.S. debt in August 2023 and the stock market lost 1.38%. After this Moody’s downgrade the stock market seemed to have little reaction as it actually had a small increase following the news. While this downgrade may sound scary, I don’t believe it will have long term consequences considering the fact that US debt is still viewed as a very safe asset. With that said, the US does need to address the growing deficit problem as further downgrades from these credit agencies could cause problems. Demand for electric vehicles is falling dramatically Electric vehicle sales in the month of April declined 5% while the overall car market grew by 10%. This is only the third monthly decline in four years for electric vehicles. The reason for the decline is consumers are watching their spending more than they have in a while and many of the deals and promotions for electric vehicles have disappeared. It was not just Tesla who had difficulty because of Elon Musk’s political association, but even Kia, Hyundai and Ford experienced drops. Rivian was hit hardest on their R1T pickup truck as it saw a 50% decline in sales for April. With some of the crazy electric vehicle lease deals gone, consumers are also asking the question about charging related concerns. There are some car buyers who were considering buying an electric vehicle but they said it’s not worth the stress of charging your vehicle all the time. It’s just much easier to pull into a gas station that is always easy to find. This is only one month of electric vehicle sales and not a trend that has been going on for a while, but with the increased production of oil from OPEC and a large potential supply of oil in the future, gas prices should decline which takes away the incentive of paying more for an electric vehicle. High risk, private market investments are showing up in more 401(k) plans Another big 401K provider called Empower who oversees $1.8 trillion in 401(k) assets for about 19 million people has decided it will start allowing private credit, equity and real estate in some of the accounts they administer later this year. I think this is a terrible idea for investors. I have seen the back end of these private deals and many times investors have made no money from them and can only get out a little bit of their money at a time, while they are suffering from low returns and high fees. No surprise Wall Street loves these private market investments because of high fees, which range anywhere from 1% to 2% of the portfolio balance on an annual basis. One way they are trying to sneak in the private market funds is with a 10% allocation in the popular target date funds. This is pretty sneaky because you may be thinking you’re getting a pretty conservative stock and bond fund that becomes more conservative as you get older, but with a 10% allocation in these private assets I believe it will increase the funds risk and lower the returns going forward. As always, the bankers on Wall Street only care about generating more fees, and don’t care if investors lose money as long as they bring in their billions of dollars in profits. If you see these in your 401(k) options, cross them off the list and stick to the traditional long-term investments that have worked for so many years now. Financial Planning: Who Benefits from the new SALT proposal? The current SALT deduction allows taxpayers who itemize to deduct up to $10,000 of certain state and local taxes, most importantly their state income taxes and property taxes, from their federal taxable income. The new proposal in the House bill would raise this cap to $40,000 for households earning under $500,000, with a phaseout that fully eliminates the expanded deduction at $600,000. Married and single tax filers alike with incomes over $600,000 would be subject to the $10,000 SALT limit. This change is intended to benefit middle- and upper-middle-income taxpayers in high-tax states, while limiting the benefit for higher earners. The proposal also includes annual 1% inflation adjustments beginning in 2026. If the bill is signed into law in its current form, the larger deduction would apply beginning in tax year 2025. If passed, tax payers who make less than $600k in high tax states who own a home with a mortgage will see the biggest tax benefit and they may want to adjust their tax withholdings or estimated tax payments to account for it. However, the bill has not passed the Senate, and the final terms are likely to change. US air traffic control systems need to be updated and repaired When it comes to flying, we always think about the safety of the airplane and the pilot flying the plane. I know I always feel pretty safe when I get on a new plane. I think that’s just human nature now and with the amount people travel, we think it’s less likely to fail. But sometimes it’s the things that are not in front of us or obvious that can harm us. There are 138 US air traffic control systems in the US and a recent study showed that 76% of these control systems are either obsolete or potentially too difficult to maintain. There is no need to panic or cancel that flight next month, but it is good that this was brought to light because we now know the US air traffic control system has not kept up with technology and needs to be updated. The Federal Aviation Administration known as the FAA is aware of this and is taking action to update the system. The recent incident at Newark Liberty airport brought this situation to light and there have been other less known incidents of communication problems within the traffic control system. They are still fighting a shortage of air traffic controllers, and with the obsolete technology the FAA needs to come up with a plan soon. Coinbase to pay out up to $400 million Coinbase Global, which will be going into the S&P 500, got hit with a $20 million ransom from cyber criminals who stole information on Coinbase accounts including details like names, addresses, phone numbers and email addresses. It looks like they even got access to Social Security and bank account numbers along with government ID images from driver’s licenses and passports. If you follow us on a regular basis, you know we’re not advocates of cryptocurrencies, but this scam happened because they attained information by bribing multiple contractors and employees working in support roles outside the United States. The ransom was for $20 million, which Coinbase refused to pay and they are instead offering a $20 million reward to find the cyber criminals. According to a regulatory filing, it is estimated that it could cost Coinbase to reimburse their customers and fix the problem between $200-$400 million. 97,000 customers were affected by this hack and as I said while we do not back cryptocurrencies, I was pleased to see that they were not paying the ransom of $20 million because it just keeps these cyber criminals going. Who should be responsible for recycling, the company producing the product or the consumer? Beverage companies like Coca-Cola and Pepsi are being pushed to stop producing plastic bottles and containers and use an alternative source like glass bottles that can be returned. This would be an added cost that more than likely would be passed along to the consumer. Being a businessman, I’m going to push back a little bit and say it should not be the responsibility of the company, but the consumer should be the one that recycles the plastic products as the end user. I have been a big recycler for as long as I can remember as it just made sense to me and it didn’t seem that hard to do. I was disappointed to see in the 1960’s, the United States recycled 7% of recyclable products but by 2025 that only increased to 32%. I thought it would be much higher in the United States. I was also surprised that the state with the highest recycling is not California as Maine takes the crown recycling 74% of their products. Around the globe, Sweden wins hand down recycling 99% of their local made products. The country Chile is definitely way behind as it only recycles one percent. I do agree something needs to be done considering the fact that since the 1950s, 9.2 billion tons of plastic has been produced of which about 75% is in our landfills, dumps and the ocean and unfortunately, they’ll be there for quite a while. A plastic bottle takes anywhere from 450 years to as long as 1000 years to decompose. The global concern is that in 35 years plastic waste could triple. I know I’m going to ruffle some feathers, but again I blame the consumer for not recycling. I found it interesting if you do recycle, crushing the plastic bottles slows down the process because the advanced machines don’t recognize it as a bottle and may think it is another product rather than plastic. War weapons have changed dramatically over the years If you go back in time, we had weapons like wooden arrows, swords and cannons. We then saw the addition of bullets, missiles, and jets. Now weapons are evolving where they no longer need men to fight the battles in the field and instead, they’ll be fought by the machines. The cost per weapon will also be much lower and much quicker to build compared to the eight-year construction of aircraft carriers like the USS Gerald R Ford at a cost of $13 billion. The weapons of today are becoming very smart with the assistance of AI and far cheaper to build than in the past. In my opinion defense is not something that the United States wants to go cheap on and I’m glad to see we do spend about $1.1 billion yearly on defense to protect our country. We will still need pilots, but instead of one pilot per plane there are now unmanned collaborative combat aircrafts known as CCA’s where one pilot can command 10 pilotless planes. It appears the industry is changing quickly and I’m happy to report that the United States is in the lead with developing smart weapons. For investors looking at the defense contractors in the United States, there are some big names like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman whose stocks are not too expensive but I also wouldn’t say they are on sale. There are also smaller companies like AeroVironment and San Diego based Kratos Defense and Security Solutions that should continue to grow as the war game changes, but would definitely be riskier investments. Overall, as defense changes, the area of defense contractors should continue to grow. What makes In-N-Out Burger so successful? Many small businesses and probably large businesses as well could learn so much by just going to eat at an In-N-Out Burger. It is probably one of my favorite restaurants and places to go because I always know what I’m going to get and it’s always of high-quality. My wife and I went on a Sunday afternoon around 1 o’clock and there were probably at least 25 cars in the drive-through and inside there were barely any open tables. We were lucky enough to get a table back in the corner, which gave me a full view of some of the things that makes this restaurant company so successful. First, let me give you a little background. The company had sales of $2.1 billion, which was derived from 418 restaurants, of which 280 are in California. The company was founded in 1948 by Harry and Esther Snyder and is currently owned by the Snyder family and run by the granddaughter, Lynsi Snyder who is owner and president. She is worth about $7 billion. As we sat at that corner table for probably 15 to 20 minutes to eat our lunch, I noticed four times an employee coming by to pick up a piece of paper or any trash on the floor, which was not there for longer than two minutes. I also noticed as soon as someone got up when they were finished eating, within a minute another employee would come by to clean up the table for the next person. You just don’t see that in businesses today. I believe some businesses are too concerned trying to control their labor costs, which comes at the expense of customer service and it seems you won’t find that at In-N-Out Burger. The restaurants are extremely clean and appears to be from what I could see at least 20 to 25 people working there. I have to add I don’t know what the interview process is but all of their employees seem to be very friendly, upbeat and appear to enjoy their job. Since they are a private company, it is only possible to get estimates of the sales of $2.1 billion per year, which comes from producing 61 million hamburgers. They have maintained pretty much the same menu for the last 75 years, which has likely enabled them to focus on quality control to produce great hamburgers and French fries for every order. Ultimately, their service is great, the food is great and I love that they keep it simple, which works very well for many businesses. Their business model is so unique that in 2003 they even became a case study for the Harvard school of business. UK luxury cars are hurting and it likely won’t get any better If you love the British high-end luxury vehicles like Aston Martin, Bentley, Rolls-Royce, Jaguar and Land Rover you may be disappointed that the prices of these vehicles will likely be going even higher. British cars will now have a 10% tariff on them when coming to the US, which is well below the 27.5% rate before the tariffs were implemented, but it is still way higher than before the tariffs began on April 3rd. In 2024 Britain shipped 96,000 cars to the US, which is just under the limit for the 10% tariff of 100,000 vehicles a year. Anything above that the 100,000 limit will see tariffs jump to 25%. Last year Britain made approximately 780,000 cars, which was about the same as 2022, but for 2025 the production is expected to slip by 8 to 10%. I was surprised to learn that of the top 20 car manufacturers in the world, the United Kingdom was 19th. This was below Russia and only beat out Malaysia. I didn’t even know that Malaysia produced cars. Today China is the top producer of cars around the world producing over 30 million cars a year with the United States coming in at just over 10 million and Japan checking in at around 8 million cars produced. The United States is the single biggest market for British luxury cars like Bentley, Range Rover and Aston Martin, but the demand for these British luxury cars is in a state of decline. I guess we need another James Bond movie for people to get excited about driving an Aston Martin.
U.S. Tariffs are hurting China Exports from China have dropped dramatically which has weighed on China’s economy. This has caused protests due to lost jobs and wages in their economy. Exports from China to the United States dropped 20% in April, but China did pick up exports from other countries like Indonesia, Thailand and Africa. While this may help a little, the export dollars for China to these other countries pales in comparison to the mighty consumption of the US consumer. China’s economy depends on exports considering the fact that in 2024 1/3 of GDP growth came from exports. The Chinese government is panicking a little bit with the central bank in China saying it would cut interest rates and inject more liquidity into the financial system. Some factories in China are pausing their production and laying off workers until things pick up again. Goldman Sachs estimates that roughly 16,000,000 jobs in China come from exports to the United States. With the news that tariffs are being lowered for 90 days it will be interesting to see how companies and these countries react. The US will still have a 30% tariff on many Chinese products, but that is much more manageable than the 145% that was in effect. It is important to remember this is a pause and that rhetoric could pick back up as negotiations continue. I do believe a reescalation in the trade war would really hurt the Chinese economy more than ours and I’m optimistic we will see a trade deal reached, but it will likely take time. I believe it is worth waiting for as a better trade agreement will benefit us for decades down the road. Inflation continues to cool The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of April came in at a 12-month rate of 2.3%, which was below the estimate of 2.4% and marked the lowest reading since February 2021. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.8% which matched expectations and was in line with March’s reading. Energy was a major help to the headline number as it fell 3.7% compared to last year with gasoline in particular down 11.8% over that timeframe. While this is all great many economists are worried about what the next few months will look like on the inflation front due to tariffs. Joseph Gagnon from the Peterson Institute for International Economics said he believes a 10% average tariff rate would add as much as 1 percentage point to the CPI after about six to nine months. While I would agree with the idea that inflation will likely increase in the months ahead, I still don’t believe it will be to a problematic level for two reasons. First, we should remember there are several players that can absorb the costs from these tariffs. You have to consider the companies importing products can reduce their margin, there would be shipping/transportation companies that can reduce their costs, the companies manufacturing products can lower their prices, and then yes, the consumer is the last piece of the puzzle that could now have higher prices. With all that said I don’t believe a 10% tariff would result in a 10% increase in prices due to all the places in the supply chain that can absorb some of the cost. The second reason I wouldn’t be overly concerned is I wouldn’t see the tariff as embedded inflation and it could likely be viewed as a one-time lift to prices that would then be lapped next year. Nonetheless this story will be interesting to monitor in the coming months to see what the actual impact is, but I do remain optimistic about our economy and the inflation outlook. Could artificial intelligence create more jobs? Many people think that artificial intelligence, also known as AI, is going to reduce jobs for people. The CEO of IBM, who admits that AI has replaced hundreds of workers, said it has created more jobs than it has eliminated. He went on to say it frees up investment that the employer can put to other areas that include such jobs as software engineering, sales, & marketing. Normal things like creating spreadsheets and other routine tasks can be done with artificial intelligence, but it still takes a human to do the critical thinking on how to use that data to enhance business for the company. If you’re working for a company and you don’t have much contact with other workers that relate to your job, your job could be at risk of being replaced by AI. Make sure your job involves using data to work with other people, which should give you job security in the growing world of AI. Oil at $50 a barrel? There is talk that we could see oil drop from around $60 a barrel down to $50 a barrel, which would be a big benefit for consumers at the pump. The reason for this is that OPEC and its allies are increasing production of oil faster than anyone expected. By June they could be producing nearly 1,000,000 more barrels of oil per day compared to current levels. The United States is currently the number one producer of oil in the world with production of nearly 15,000,000 barrels per day. If you’re wondering does that meet our consumption? It does not as that stands at 19.6 million barrels per day. OPEC is not taking this sitting down and they want to regain market share. To do it appears they’re willing to see lower oil prices. The reason why oil prices are expected to drop is that the demand is about the same as it was just one year ago, so the increase in production means we’ll probably have an oil glut for a while. At $50 a barrel most oil companies can still make money off of producing oil, but US oil companies might stop doing stock buybacks and could no longer build new wells. What this would do is hurt supply in the future and oil would turn around and increase once again. If you invest in oil companies, you have to realize that supply/demand of oil will rule the price of the stock. But fortunately, most of the big oil companies pay a good dividend, which makes it a little bit easier to hold on when the stocks have a temporary decline. For consumers, this means the average cost per gallon of gasoline across the country, which is now around $3.20 per gallon, could drop to levels around $2.50 per gallon. Consumers in California may not see declines in the prices at the pump as California continues to drive refiners out of the state and reject refined gasoline from other states that do not meet a ridiculously high standard. If you want to blame someone for higher gas prices in California you can blame the governor and Sacramento for ridiculous policies on gasoline. Financial Planning: Trusts and Retirement Accounts Do Not Mix Naming a living trust as the beneficiary of a retirement account—such as an IRA or 401(k)—is generally not a good idea due to potential tax inefficiencies and administrative complexity. Under the SECURE Act, the "stretch IRA" option has been largely eliminated for most non-spouse beneficiaries, and replaced with a 10-year rule requiring the entire account to be withdrawn within a decade of the original owner's death. If a trust is named as the beneficiary and it isn’t specifically drafted to be the beneficiary of a retirement account, it may not qualify for this 10-year treatment and could face even faster distribution requirements, such as a 5-year distribution period, accelerating taxes significantly. Instead, it’s typically better to name individual beneficiaries directly on retirement accounts to preserve flexibility and minimize tax impact. For those needing control over distributions—for example, to protect minor children or spendthrift heirs—a carefully drafted trust designed to meet IRS requirements should be used with the help of a qualified estate planning attorney. For most other cases, listing actual people or charities as beneficiaries is a much simpler and more efficient strategy. Should you use the new money market ETFs? Over the last 10 years money market mutual funds have grown by 150% to $6.9 trillion from $2.75 trillion just 10 years ago. That far outpaces the growth of the average US stock fund, which only increased by 70% over the 10-year period from $9.5 trillion to $16 trillion. A positive for investors is fees on US stock mutual funds have fallen by almost 40% to 0.33% annually from 0.54% according to MorningStar. Money market funds even though they have increased their assets by 150% actually saw their expenses rise to 0.21% from 0.19%. To catch people off guard, they have now come out with money market ETFs, but don’t fall for it. These new types of funds have not been tested yet and I fear investors will not understand how they work. Remember a true money market fund cannot break the dollar share price, but to the unknown investor who thinks it’s better to be in a money market ETF they are at risk of price fluctuations. You may not like that the money market mutual funds have raised their fees a little bit but keep in mind for 10 years many of these companies waved all their fees because the yield was so low. They can now make a little bit of money off of these money market funds while still offering a yield that is more attractive than your checking/savings account in most cases. The Vatican has a financial mess on their hands I was disappointed to learn that the Vatican is in a financial mess that I don’t see how they can get out of. Wall Street Journal reporters met with officials from the Vatican‘s bank, pension fund and regulatory institutions and things that were discovered were appalling in my opinion. It was discovered that nuns kept ledger’s that were written in pencil on paper. That’s shocking considering where technology is in today’s world! I remember from my accounting days, even back then it was a huge no no to use a pencil. It appears auditors and people in charge have come and gone, scratching their heads by finding such things as huge amounts of money missing and there was even cash found in shopping bags. In the 19th century, they used to tax rich farmland owners that is now central and northern Italy. In 1870 it was taken away from the Vatican and it was only left with a 0.2 mi.² estate that is now called Vatican City. They do have investments including real estate, but no one seems to know the true value of those investments. They have priceless masterpieces from Michelangelo, Caravaggio and Leonardo and over one million rare books, but they are carried on the balance sheet at only one euro because the Vatican has no intention of ever selling these assets. Unfortunately, they pay large insurance premiums on them, which is very costly. The pension plan had a 2 billion Euro liability, which at this time there’s no way for them to fund the full pension. It’s a shame to see such a great religious organization in such financial ruin from fraud and deceit of those who were entrusted. Instead of trying to fix the problem, the only thing they have come up with was to ask the faithful to donate more money. The Vatican was actually built in the fourth century, but in its current state it has only been around for about 90 years. Hopefully they will get their situation figured out and get their books in order. They need to have a regular audit by outside auditors on a yearly basis to protect the future of the Vatican, but how do you audit and question the Pope? Gig workers may be better entrepreneurs A gig worker is someone who is an independent contractor and takes on short term contracts for multiple companies. In a study from US tax records from 2012 to 2021, 2 1/2% of gig workers created their own company compared with only 0.7% of the working age population. Reasons that were submitted for this was they have the flexibility to start a business compared to someone working at a company for 40 hours a week. The flexibility gives them the opportunity to set up their business on their schedule instead of working 9 to 5 for an employer. It was also discovered that the average age of gig workers that started their own company was 38, which compared to non-gig workers at 41 years old. Gig workers being more entrepreneurial makes sense to me since they work on their own and are not told what to do. In the beginning the gig entrepreneurs had higher gross profits than others who started businesses. Profits were 39% higher for gig workers after one year and after three years it rose to 42%. Unfortunately, companies founded by gig workers don’t survive as well, it appears they’ll take on a higher risk than the average person. The likelihood of surviving the business for a gig worker was 69.4% after one year, which was below the 72% chance of survival for working age people. By year three, the chance of that gig worker’s business surviving was 45.2% versus 48.4% for the working age population. It takes a special person to become an entrepreneur and run their own business. I never forget the old saying about owning you own business: the best thing is you can set your own hours, between seven in the morning and seven at night and even that might be generous. If you want a good successful business, the best advice I have found is to work extremely hard and put in a lot of hours. The US consumer still looks strong April retail sales were quite impressive when you look at the results compared to 2024. Listening to the news I thought it might be problematic as they pointed out the month over month growth of just 0.1%, but compared to last year they grew 5.2%. It’s even more impressive if you exclude gas stations as retail sales would have grown 6.2%. This is due to the fact that lower gas prices caused sales at gas stations to be down 6.8% compared to last year. There is no doubt about it that tariffs caused some pull forward in demand with areas like motor vehicle and parts dealers seeing sales climb 9.4%. Furniture and home furnishing stores, which would also likely be impacted by tariffs saw sales climb 7.8% compared to last year. The one area that I really find interesting though is food services and drinking places, which saw sales climb 7.8% compared to last year. This tells me the consumer is still feeling confident as this area is quite discretionary and if people are worried about the economy they generally cut back on spending at restaurants. Also, there would be no pull forward in demand from the tariffs in this space. Did Cisco finally reach its high set back in 2000? When I was watching the business news on Thursday morning, I noticed that Cisco, symbol CSCO, had passed $65 a share. I thought this was a big accomplishment because I remembered back during the tech boom Cisco was like Nvidia and some other high flyers of today and the stock went to exorbitant levels of which I remembered at $65 a share. However, when I looked back to see the high for the stock that occurred on March 20th, 2000, I noticed it hit $79.38 a share. So, investors who were sucked into the hype and bought the stock at that level still have not broken even. The company does now pay $1.64 in yearly dividends so perhaps when you add that back in, you get to break even or perhaps even a little return on the stock. The first dividend was paid by the company on April 20th, 2011, but I know it was a much lower rate than $1.64 of today. With estimated earnings for July 2026 from the mean of 23 analysts at $3.99 the forward PE is about 16.3, which is reasonable, but I wouldn’t say it’s on sale and worth buying at this level. I wrote this piece not to recommend a buy or sell on Cisco stock, which I do think is a good company, but to bring back history because if you don’t remember history, then you’re probably doomed to repeat the same mistakes.