Bitcoin had a nice April, will it continue? Will Gas Prices Come Back Down? April Jobs Report Changes Everything, When Permanent Life Insurance Isn’t Permanent & More

Bitcoin had a nice April, will it continue

The cryptocurrency gained 12.7% last month, marking its best performance since April 2025. Interestingly, according to CryptoQuant, the 30-day change in outright Bitcoin purchases remained negative throughout April. That suggests the rally wasn’t driven by strong spot demand.

Instead, much of the momentum came from something called perpetual futures. Until recently, I wasn’t very familiar with this product, but at its core, it’s another tool that increases risk. Unlike traditional options, these derivative contracts have no expiration date and are designed to let traders speculate on the price movements of an underlying asset.

Perpetual futures have grown rapidly in popularity within the crypto space, largely because they allow for significantly higher leverage—sometimes as much as 100x. That kind of leverage can amplify gains, but it also increases the risk of sharp reversals.

Historically, when there’s a divergence between the spot market and the futures market like this, price gains tend not to last once leveraged positions begin to unwind. Where crypto goes from here is anyone’s guess, but piling more leverage onto an already risky asset doesn’t seem like a good idea to me.

When Will We See Gas Prices Come Back Down?

No one can predict exactly when gas prices will decline, but many are aware the current prices are being driven higher by the situation with Iran. At this point, the bombing appears to have ended, but much of the country remains heavily damaged. Estimates suggest it could cost Iran nearly $300 billion to rebuild what has been destroyed.

The situation has shifted to one in which Iran is slowly being weakened economically because little to no oil is being exported from the country, resulting in a major loss of revenue. Reports estimate these losses at roughly $200 million per day — approximately $6 billion per month or $12 billion over two months.

Inflation in Iran is currently estimated to be above 60% and continues to rise as economic conditions worsen. Based on these developments, I still believe we could begin to see oil prices decline sometime around the end of June. If that happens, prices may fall at a fairly rapid pace, and by the end of July consumers could see more normal prices at the gas pump.

Lower energy costs would likely help improve overall economic conditions, potentially putting the economy back on track and supporting GDP growth by the end of the year.

The April jobs report just threw cold water on the “imminent Fed cuts” narrative.

The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, well above expectations of 55,000, while unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Given little growth in the labor force, only modest job creation is needed to keep the rate steady. Wage growth also remained relatively firm at 3.6% on an annual basis. In short: the labor market is slowing from the breakneck pace of the post-COVID boom, but it is not breaking.

That matters because the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: keep inflation under control & maintain maximum employment.

Right now, the jobs side of the equation is giving the Fed room to stay patient. A few months ago, markets were pricing in aggressive rate cuts based on fears that the labor market was deteriorating. This report makes that much harder to justify. Hiring remains positive & layoffs are still relatively contained. Sectors that were strong in the month were healthcare, up 37k jobs; transportation & warehousing, up 30k jobs; and retail trade was up 22k jobs. Areas of weakness were information, down 13k jobs; and federal government, down another 9k jobs.

The bigger issue for the Fed now is inflation. Energy prices remain elevated, tariffs are feeding through supply chains, and policymakers are increasingly worried that inflation could stay sticky longer than expected. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged on Friday that inflation has been “going the wrong way lately.”

As long as the labor market remains stable, it appears the Fed has little urgency to cut rates.

The key takeaway: This wasn’t a “Goldilocks” report for dovish investors hoping for rapid cuts. It was a reminder that the economy is still strong enough for the Fed to prioritize inflation over stimulus. And until unemployment starts rising meaningfully or inflation decelerates, the Fed may have a hard time justifying rate cuts.

Financial Planning: When Permanent Life Insurance isn’t Permanent

Cash value life insurance policies should be reviewed regularly because the long-term performance of the policy often changes significantly over time. In many policies, the internal cost of insurance increases every year as the insured ages because the probability of death rises with age. In addition, policies also have other internal expenses such as administrative fees, rider costs, premium loads, and investment management expenses. While policies are commonly illustrated using attractive hypothetical growth rates, those returns can be misleading because they are shown before many of these internal deductions are applied. As the insured gets older and the insurance costs rise, the total internal charges can eventually exceed the policy’s earnings, causing the net growth rate of the cash value to become very low or even negative. When this happens, the policy may begin consuming its own cash value to stay in force. If the cash value becomes depleted, the policy can lapse unless substantially higher premiums are paid later in life. Reviewing these policies proactively is important so there is time to determine whether additional funding is needed, whether benefits should be adjusted, or whether surrendering the policy and accessing any remaining cash value may be the better option before the policy becomes unsustainable.

Compared to wages, a McDonald’s cheeseburger is a great deal

We hear a lot about inflation and how some things are becoming unaffordable—which is true—but not all items have followed that pattern. For example, a hot dog at Costco or a McDonald’s cheeseburger remains one of the best bargains around. Going back 78 years to 1948, the cost of a cheeseburger at McDonald’s was about $0.19. Today, it’s roughly $3.89—an increase of about 2,050%. At first glance, that sounds like steep inflation.

However, when you compare that to wages over the same 78-year period, the picture changes. In 1948, the federal minimum wage was $0.40 per hour. Today, the average minimum wage across all 50 states is about $11.59—an increase of roughly 2,898%. That’s significantly higher than the increase in the price of a McDonald’s cheeseburger.

You’ll often hear headlines emphasizing how bad inflation is, but it’s important to look at the full context. Numbers by themselves don’t tell the whole story—they only make sense when you compare them to something meaningful.

Has GameStop CEO, Ryan Cohen, lost his mind?

GameStop has made an unsolicited bid to acquire eBay for $125/share, valuing it at roughly $55.5 billion. That’s a 20% premium to where eBay was trading last Friday—and nearly a 50% premium to where it was just a couple months ago. On paper, it sounds bold. In reality, I just don’t see how this gets done! GameStop itself is only worth about $10 billion. It’s essentially trying to buy a company five times its size. Even with a $20 billion financing letter and its $9+ billion cash pile, there’s still a massive funding gap.

The plan leans heavily on issuing stock—which raises dilution concerns and execution risk. Cohen said in an interview, “We are offering half cash, half stock, and we have the ability to issue stock in order to get the deal done.” He would really need the meme crowd to come alive to be able to dilute the current shareholders to that degree. GameStop does have a 5% stake in Ebay that consists primarily of derivatives and some common stock. This does give them a seat at the table to some degree, but the two companies haven’t even spoken yet. Cohen has said he is prepared to take the offer directly to shareholders in a proxy fight if needed.

The market’s reaction says a lot. eBay shares rose—but nowhere near the offer price, signaling deep skepticism that this ever closes. Strategically, GameStop argues eBay is underperforming and bloated, with billions in marketing spend and minimal user growth. Cohen believes he can cut costs, double earnings, and turn eBay into a far more efficient machine—essentially applying the same turnaround playbook he used at GameStop.

GameStop has seen net income grow to $418 million in its most recent fiscal year from $131 million in 2025 and a loss of $313 million in 2023. But the question is can the company truly grow? Revenue fell to just $3.6 billion from nearly $6 billion in 2023. You can only cut costs so much to help grow net income, the business at some point needs to return to growth to be a worthwhile investment. Cohen’s current compensation package is comprised of stock options tied to performance targets, including market capitalization and earnings thresholds. The options could be worth more than $35 billion if the company reaches a $100 billion valuation and meets profit targets. I do wonder if he’s trying to buy himself into the valuation. Needless to say, I remain skeptical about this deal and GameStop as an investment.

Prediction markets are costing investors money

I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it: prediction markets are gambling, and they shouldn’t be treated like investments. The core issue is that gambling carries a negative expected return over time—most participants lose.

We’re now starting to see data that confirms this. An April Bloomberg analysis found that more than 100,000 accounts have lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket—more than double the number of accounts that have made that much. Separate research from French and Canadian business schools estimates that about 69% of accounts have lost money on the platform since 2022.

The pattern isn’t unique. Data shared with CNBC shows that over 70% of traders on Kalshi have been unprofitable over the past six months.

What’s concerning is that participation continues to surge despite these outcomes. Prediction market trading volume is projected to nearly quadruple in 2026 and could reach $1 trillion by 2030. Much of this growth appears driven by younger investors who feel left behind by the traditional financial system. A Northwestern Mutual survey found that 80% of Gen Z and 75% of millennials interested in prediction markets, sports betting, crypto, options, or meme stocks feel financially behind—and believe these platforms can help them reach their goals more effectively than traditional investing.

Nearly a third of Gen Z (32%) and about a quarter of millennials (24%) say they are currently using—or considering using—prediction markets or sports betting. That compares with just 17% of all U.S. adults, and even lower participation among Gen X and baby boomers.

While the traditional financial system has its flaws, calling it “broken” and turning to gambling as a solution is misguided. Long-term investing does require patience and discipline, but an all-or-nothing approach rooted in speculation is more likely to widen the gap between those who build wealth and those who don’t.

Buying strong businesses at reasonable prices and holding them over time isn’t exciting—but it has a far better track record of actually working.

Do Not Roll Over Negative Equity Into Your New Car Loan

Purchasing a new car is exciting. You get that new-car smell and the pride that comes with driving something brand new off the lot. Unfortunately, many buyers end up making a costly financial mistake by rolling negative equity from their current vehicle into a new car loan.

About 30% of borrowers in the first quarter of 2026 who traded in a vehicle to purchase a new one had negative equity, meaning they owed more on their car than it was worth. The numbers are staggering: borrowers with negative equity owed an average of about $7,200, which was added to their new loan — a 42% increase compared with five years ago.

Today, the average new car loan lasts about 70 months, and some loans stretch as long as eight years. What many people do not realize is that loans amortize, meaning most of the interest is paid upfront. As a result, when buyers want another new car just a few years later, they often have not paid down nearly as much principal as they expected.

Data also shows that consumers who rolled over negative equity from a previous vehicle loan were 200% more likely to have their car repossessed than borrowers who had positive equity in their vehicle.

Before heading to the dealership, check how much you still owe on your current car and get an accurate valuation of the vehicle to determine whether you are upside down on the loan. If you are, consider waiting a little longer before purchasing another vehicle until you at least reach a break-even point.

When buying a car, plan ahead and remember that you will likely trade or sell it someday. Keep the vehicle in good condition, try to limit excessive mileage, and avoid purchasing a car that is beyond your budget. Also, be careful of salespeople extending the loan duration to make the payments lower to try and make you believe you can afford the more expensive option.

Instead, buy a vehicle you can comfortably afford, even if it means skipping some of the extra bells and whistles. Being realistic about your budget today can help ensure that when you are ready for your next car four or five years down the road, you will not have to roll negative equity into another loan.