Labor Market payrolls Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 in the month of April. While this was well below the estimate of 240,000, this may actually be a big positive. Having that type of growth still shows the labor market is on good footing, but to combat the Fed’s inflation concerns it’s nice to see a labor market that is not too hot. Previous revisions also weren’t major considering March was revised up by 12,000 to a gain of 315,000 and February was revised lower by 34,000 to a gain of 236,000. Areas of strength included health care and social assistance (+87K), transportation and warehousing (+20.1K), and retail trade (+20.1K). Some areas actually saw minor losses including mining and logging (-3K), professional and business services (-4K), and information (-8K). With wage inflation being a major concern, I’d say the biggest data point was average hourly earnings growth of 3.9% missed the expectation of 4.0%. This was a decline from March’s reading of 4.1% and actually marked the lowest reading since the Fed starting hiking interest rates in 2022. Overall, I was quite pleased with the job numbers as I believe it shows a cooling labor market that remains healthy. Job Openings At the end of March job openings totaled 8.5 million. This missed the estimate of 8.7 million and was lower compared to the previous month’s reading of 8.8 million. Compared to last year, job openings were down 1.1 million. While this all sounds like bad news, I believe this is a positive. To start, pre-covid we had never seen a reading of over 8 million job openings, which means there is still plenty of available work for those that are looking. Also, when there were too many available jobs it created more competition for workers, which many times leads to wage pressures and in theory puts pressure on inflation. The labor market has remained resilient, but I believe we need to continue to see some softening to assist with inflationary concerns. This report came after the employment cost index spooked markets as it rose 1.2% in the first three months of the year versus an expectation of 1%. Compared to last year’s first quarter, wages and benefits rose 4.2%, which matched Q4’s reading and is off the multidecade high of 5.1% in 2022. Wages make up about 70% of employment costs and they increased 4.3% compared to last year, while benefit costs increased 3.7%. One other note to consider is that union workers saw a larger increase than non-union employees in the quarter. As we lap the impact from the union negotiations that concluded late last year, we will likely see a smaller increase from union jobs in the report. Microsoft and OpenAI I’m very curious to see how lawsuits against Microsoft and OpenAI over copyright infringement play out. Late last year the New York Times announced a lawsuit and now eight newspaper publishers in California, Colorado, Illinois, Florida, Minnesota, and New York have claimed Microsoft and OpenAI used millions of their articles without payment or permission. All eight publishers fall under the ownership of hedge fund Alden Global Capital and include names like the Denver Post, Chicago Tribune, and the New York Daily News. “The current GPT-4 LLM will output near-verbatim copies of significant portions of the publishers’ works when prompted to do so,” the complaint said. It also showed several examples of ChatGPT and the Copilot allegedly doing so. If these companies are able to win, I worry it could open the floodgates and other content providers could then claim the same infractions. ChatGPT also received more bad news with competitor Anthropic announcing its first enterprise offering and a free iPhone app. Anthropic was founded by ex-OpenAI research executives and has backers that include Amazon, Google, and Salesforce. Its Claude 3 model can reportedly summarize up to about 150,000 words and convert the large data sets into summaries in the form of a memo, letter or story. For comparison, ChatGPT can handle about 3,000 words. Overall, the AI space remains very early on to try and pick winners and I believe many investors will be disappointed a few years down the road as they unfortunately picked the wrong horse to bet on. Starbucks Have you not been drinking as much Starbucks as you used to? The 52 week high for the stock is $109.72, but after reporting earnings the stock fell to $74.44. This was a 32.2% drop from the high. The company is struggling with their competitor in China, Luckin Coffee, and Starbucks saw a 11% decline in same store sales year over year. Starbucks has ambitious plans to roll out new beverages and increase their efficiency to bring back lost customers. Investors should note that there are union negotiations going on for 410 stores in the US, which could increase their labor cost and perhaps slow down their efficiency. In my opinion, even with this pull back it's still not a bargain as it still trades at almost 20 times earnings. We will do an analysis of Starbucks during our radio show and podcast on Saturday, May 11th after the numbers settle down and we can better view the company going forward. Financial Planning: Social Security at 62 vs. 70 One of the biggest choices retirees make is when to collect Social Security. Collecting as early as possible, which is age 62, will result in a permanent reduction in the monthly amount received, while waiting as long as possible, which is 70, will provide the largest bonus. Every month beyond age 62 that benefits are deferred, the amount increases, and the age 70 amount is 77% larger than the age 62 amount. This appears to be a drastic increase, and calculated annually it comes out to a little less than 8% per year. However a common misconception that a lot of retirees and financial advisors make is equating this to a guaranteed 8% per year return, which it is not. An 8% increase in the payment per year is not equivalent to an 8% return per year. The reason is, Social Security will eventually stop paying when you die, so you are receiving 8% more each year you wait, but you will also be receiving that for one less year. Because of this, assigning a rate of return to Social Security options is misleading and inaccurate. Instead it is far more appropriate to value the cashflow from the different options since ultimately Social Security is a stream of cashflow over time. The best way to do this is with a Net Present Value function which accounts for the influence of opportunity cost and time, which are two extremely important factors when structuring retirement income. This process is more analytical, but much more wholistic as it incorporates other assets and income sources into the Social Security decision. As a result, it is common for collecting Social Security sooner to be the objectively correct decision because it prevents the depletion of assets that otherwise would pass to heirs and it allows for greater implementation of tax strategies during earlier years of retirement. R-Squared I often times talk about the risk of overlap when investors buy mutual funds or ETFs. One great example of that is when investors pair the S&P 500 with the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund. While this fund has 3,731 stocks, those thousands of small companies only make up 9% of the portfolio. This means you are essentially double buying the S&P 500. There is a measure called R-Squared, or R2, which shows the correlation of a fund against its benchmark. The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF has a 99 R2 with the S&P 500, meaning they essentially move exactly the same. Nvidia I remember being a kid and playing king of the hill. No matter how big the kid was, the king of the hill eventually was taken down by three or four smaller kids. It looks like the same is going to happen with Nvidia. Nvidia currently has more than 90% market share of the AI revolution, but don’t think other companies are sitting back applauding them and doing nothing. Going forward Nvidia is going to see competition coming from many different angles including big chipmakers like AMD, Qualcomm and even Intel who will be using Taiwan Semiconductor in the beginning to make their Gaudi 3 chip that is claimed to be faster and use less power than Nvidia’s H100 chip. The competition won’t stop there, big customers for Nvidia include Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, who have decided to make their own chips in house. These four companies combined will have an estimated capital spending level of $178 billion in fiscal year 2024, that’s a 26% increase from last year. I also always talk about how there could be somebody in a small garage making some great product or chip that could come out of nowhere. Well, maybe not in the garage, but there are 10 well-known venture backed companies that could come out with a surprise chip, which could be the next hot thing and challenge Nvidia. No one knows the future direction of Nvidia, but we do know that competition is good for the consumer and never good for a company that carries a 90% market share. Luxury Homes In the first quarter of 2024, 46.8% of luxury homes were paid for in cash. That’s a surprise to me because I would think that a luxury home would be purchased by more affluent sophisticated consumers that would have a better understanding of investing and the time value of money. Perhaps they are poor investors and their investments have not done well over time. They are also missing one of the big benefits of real estate which has always been the use of reasonable leverage. I’m also wondering what type of appreciation they think they will receive on that real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Based on what I see in residential real estate over the next 5 to 10 years, I don’t see much more than a 3% return per year. S&P 500 One of the reasons investing in companies is so great is that as the businesses grow and earnings climb they can return money to shareholders. That is something you don’t get from bonds or money market accounts. In 2023, S&P 500 companies returned approximately $1.5 trillion to shareholders with dividends accounting for just over 40% of the total payout last year. Total dollars returned to shareholders grew about 7% from the $1.4 trillion in 2022 and this year it is expected total payouts will grow 10% to over $1.6 trillion. One problem to keep an eye on is that $1.6 trillion would consume nearly all of the expected free cash flow for S&P 500 companies meaning debt may be used to fuel some of the increase. I have said it before, but I am not a big advocate for borrowing to pay a dividend or buyback stock as it can bite you down the road. Overall, I would say this is welcomed news, but investors should be careful with some companies that are dangerously increasing their payouts. Federal Reserve While rate cuts seem to make more news than Quantitative Easing (QE) or Quantitative Tightening (QT), it is still very impactful and there was some important news from Fed Chair Powell you may have missed. The Federal Reserves has been going through QT as they have been allowing a cap of $60 B per month of Treasuries and $35 B per month of mortgage backed securities to roll off the balance sheet. The Fed stated that starting June 1st they will reduce the cap on treasuries to $25 B and while they left the cap at $35 billion for mortgage backed securities, it will reinvest any excess principal payments into treasuries. Powell indicated that the new caps would likely result in around $40 B per month in total balance sheet runoff as actual reductions in bonds have frequently fallen short of the caps. The balance sheet was used as a tool to lower rates during the pandemic and it doubled in size from its pre-pandemic level to about $9 T. After starting QT in the second half of 2022, the Fed’s balance sheet has fallen to $7.5 T. While they implemented the reduced cap, Powell stated, “the decision to slow the pace of runoff does not mean that our balance sheet will ultimately shrink by less than it would otherwise, but rather allows us to approach its ultimate level more gradually." Current estimates have the runoff likely finishing in 2025 with Fed holdings potentially between $6 T and $6.5 T. In regard to rate cuts, it seems like Fed may be leaning towards one or maybe two this year. The big benefit here was Powell essentially removed the idea of a rate hike and fought back against stagflation concerns stating he doesn't see "the 'stag' or the 'flation.'" Peloton (PTON) Peloton (PTON) is known for its high-end exercise bikes and it could do no wrong during the pandemic as the stock price quickly climbed to an all-time high of $171.09 on January 13th, 2021. If you’ve not been following this company, it continues to lose money and the stock continues to fall. It recently fell below $3.00 per share. The company fired the CEO after earnings. He had a great reputation for turning around businesses and running companies, but it appears there was nothing he could do to fix this company. If you hold the stock, it’s probably a good idea to sell it as I worry they could announce bankruptcy potentially sometime this year. I wonder if you own the bike, should you sell that as well because there will be nowhere to get replacement parts when this company files bankruptcy. As we said many times for the past couple years, these bikes will become great clothes hangers. That could be even more so the case if they filed bankruptcy and no replacement parts were available.
GDP First quarter GDP was a large disappointment as it grew at an annualized pace of 1.6%, substantially below the estimate of 2.4%. I will say, considering there is a lot of data to collect the first reading can be subject to major revisions. As a recent example, in 2023 Q1 GDP had an initial reading which showed an increase of 1.1%, but it was later revised to 2.2%. It is possible we could see a similar situation with this report. Given the current numbers, there were still some positives. Although it was below the estimate of 3% and down from the Q4 reading of 3.3%, consumer spending in the quarter still grew nicely with a gain of 2.4%. There was quite a large discrepancy between goods and services spending as goods actually fell 0.4% and services climbed 4%, which marked the best quarter since Q3 2021. Goods spending was largely dragged down by a 1.2% decline in durable goods. Private investment was also very strong in the quarter as it grew 3.2%, residential investment was a large contributor to that number as it increased 13.9%. Government spending was also positive in the quarter with a gain of 1.2%. With all these positives, you might be wondering how GDP missed expectations. Areas that were negative weights on the report included the change in private inventories, which subtracted 0.35% from the headline number and net exports of goods and services, which subtracted 0.86% from the headline number. Private inventories can be a volatile metric that will depend on businesses restocking inventory. I would not be surprised to see this number turn positive in Q2 considering Q4 of 2023 was also negative and subtracted 0.47% from the headline number. This followed a nice benefit of 1.27% in Q3 of 2023. If consumer spending remains strong, businesses will likely need to restock inventory which should be a benefit moving forward. As for the trade imbalance, this came as exports grew 0.9% in the quarter, but imports rose 7.2%. Overall, I wouldn’t say this report was super strong, but I’m also not worried about the current standing of the economy as I am still anticipating a slowdown over a major recession. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) The release of the March core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) was I’d say lackluster. It wasn’t as positive as I was hoping for, but I still don’t think it was that bad. The core PCE of 2.8% came in slightly hotter than the estimate of 2.7%, but it matched February’s number. Including food and energy, PCE increased 2.7%, which was also slightly higher than the estimate of 2.6%. Services continues to elevate prices as they were up 4% on a 12-month basis versus goods which increased just 0.1%. Overall, it is somewhat disappointing to see the deceleration in inflation slow, but numbers don’t always follow a straight-line trajectory. It will be interesting to see this report over the next couple months, but as of now the estimate for three rate cuts is looking a little more questionable. S&P 500 The S&P 500 remains expensive based on several valuation metrics, but that doesn't mean you can't find buys out there. Although the index trades around 20x forward earnings, about 20% of companies are bringing up that multiple as they trade at double the index's valuation. The positive is there is about 20% of the index that trades at half the index's multiple. Much of the dislocation comes from the excitement over growth stocks and the index now has more than two times the allocation towards growth (46%) over value (21%). Historically the allocation has been more balanced and on average over the last 30 years the split has been an allocation of about 31% for growth and 32% for value. I continue to believe that numbers like these will be a reason for value's outperformance going forward. Technology & S&P 500 I have talked many times about my concern with the over-concentration of the S&P 500 index in technology. The sector controls about 30% of the entire index, but what is crazy is Amazon, Tesla, Meta, and Alphabet are actually classified as consumer and communication stocks which would then understate the tech weighting of the S&P 500 (If you count Tesla as a tech company). If these were included, the weighting would be over 40%. The last time the index was so concentrated in tech occurred before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. If you’ve held the Magnificent Seven over the last couple years, congrats, but for those that enjoyed the movie, you may remember four of the seven end up dead. Could we see a similar fate with these stocks? Nasdaq If you didn't do as well as the market in 2023, don't beat yourself up. The top 10 stocks greatly carried both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. In fact the average return for the top 10 stocks was 85.6% versus 16% for the other 490 companies. This meant that these top 10 stocks accounted for 63% of the index's return for the year. Over the past 30 years, the top 10 stocks have on average represented 24% of the index's growth. I do continue to worry many of these top 10 stocks could be a drag on the index and people's portfolios considering their lofty valuations. Financial Planning: Do you Hold too Much Cash? Everyone needs some level of cash, and that number varies from person to person. For those with higher levels of assets, it can be possible to have too much cash which would be better off invested. We’ve seen people with $100k, $250k, $500k, or even over $1 million in cash which is likely way too much, even if it’s in a high-yield account or CD. Over time, cash will not perform as well as invested dollars. Right now, there are places where cash can earn over 5%, but this is still lower than market returns of 8% to 10% or more. Also, those 5% yields will be coming down as interest rates decline. We know there’s people out there who wait to time the market and invest their cash right at the bottom, but that generally doesn’t work out. From a tax perspective, cash produces interest which is taxed at a higher rate than investment income like dividends or capital gains. When interest is taxed at 10% or 12%, investment income would be taxed at 0%, and when interest is taxed at 22%, 24%, or 32%, investment income would be taxed at 15%. Not only is cash taxed at a higher rate, but its entire return is reportable as income every year, there’s no appreciation with cash. For example, if you have $500,000 of cash earning 5% for a total of $25,000, that entire $25,000 is reportable as interest income that year. If instead that $500,000 was invested in equities earning on average 8% made up of 2% dividends and 6% appreciation, you would only need to report the 2% dividend income of $10,000 as long as nothing is sold. This flexibility keeps your tax bill down but also reduces the chance of triggering AGI related issues like the net investment income tax or additional Medicare premiums. If you’re in the 4th tax bracket with an 8% investment return of $40,000, you’re only paying $1,500 in federal taxes from the dividends, plus $930 in state taxes if you’re in California. Comparing that with your 5% cash return of $25,000, you’d pay $6,000 in ordinary income taxes, $2,325 in state taxes, plus potentially an extra $570 net investment income tax, and/or another $3,000 in extra Medicare premiums. Now that 5% yield becomes 2.6% after tax while the invested dollars return 7.5% after tax. Investing can be volatile in the short-term, but over time it is a much better option than hoarding cash. Utility Companies We have seen natural gas prices drop to around $2 per million British thermal units, a huge drop from around $9 in 2022. In the United States natural gas generates about 42% of electricity, so like myself you may be wondering why is my electric bill still increasing? On average, last year’s bills were up 10.2% nationwide. The reason we are given, which I still question is they say it’s the cost of transmission and distribution. It sounds to me like an excuse for the utility companies to keep their prices higher for their customers. Goldman Sachs I believe Goldman Sachs is looking for a downturn in the market in 2024 based on their prediction that stock pension funds will sell $325 billion worth of equities this year. That would be a 70% increase from the $191 billion sold in 2023. Based on many things I have read so far in 2024, I believe many big firms and money managers are realizing that technology stocks have gotten way beyond where they should be. It appears Goldman Sachs believes this will be a profit taking year, we will see come December 31st. Keep in mind I believe the overvalued equities in the markets are the ones that could see the most selling pressure, I don’t believe this will impact equities that are undervalued or trading at reasonable valuations. Tapestry I was disappointed to see the FTC sue to block Tapestry’s purchase of Capri Holdings. Tapestry owns Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman. Capri owns Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace. The FTC claims the acquisition will eliminate fierce competition between the two companies, but I have a hard time seeing how this will impact the consumer. Will Jimmy Choo’s shoes now cost $1,100 instead of $1,000? I don’t see this happening, but mainly am trying to make the point that luxury goods are already expensive and I don’t see how this acquisition will harm a consumer that many people view are already over paying for consumer goods. The CEO of Tapestry rightfully points out there are no barriers to entry in this market. I believe this is another waste of time from an FTC that has already wasted tax payer dollars on trying to block other acquisitions. I believe this will be another example of a failed block by the FTC, which will ultimately be a cost funded by US taxpayers. Pennies Financially, I do pretty well, but it’s still ingrained in me from when I was a kid to count your pennies and don’t waste money. I remember a friend of mine from junior high school who I’m still in touch with, Gary. He would say I really knew how to pinch the penny, lol. So, you can imagine my shock when I read that Americans throw away as much as $68 million in coins on a yearly basis. If you do the math that is about $4.86 per person every year, almost enough to buy a Starbucks. I do see coins in the US eventually being a thing of the past, which would make sense and save the government about $700 million per year in making coins. It costs the government three cents to make one penny. I think that’s how politicians have gotten themselves into such a big debt, using that kind of logic on many things. Anyways, if you don’t want your coins, please feel free to send them my way. I would love to have them, lol. RoboTaxis I thought the reaction to Tesla’s earnings was just crazy considering the stock’s double-digit increase. First let’s look at the numbers, adjusted earnings per share of 45 cents missed the 51 cent expectation as net income dropped 55% from last year. Sales of $21.3 B missed the estimate of $22.15 B and were down 9% compared to last year, this was the worst decline since 2012. These developments also led to negative free cash flow in the quarter. So why did the stock increase? It likely had to do with Elon Musk discussing AI, robotaxis, or a new car model. It just amazes me how people still get so excited by Elon’s projections considering his poor track record. Let’s look at some examples. In 2015, Musk told shareholders that Tesla cars would achieve “full autonomy” within three years. In 2016, Musk said a Tesla car would be able to make a cross-country drive without requiring any human intervention before the end of 2017. In 2019, on a call with institutional investors that would help him raise more than $2 billion, Musk said Tesla would have 1 million robotaxi-ready vehicles on the road in 2020, able to complete 100 hours of driving work per week each, making money for their owners. Quite simply none of these things have happened. It’s also important to consider the fact that robotaxis will need to work with government regulators for approval. This is something that both GM’s cruise and Google’s Waymo have been doing. NBC News recently reported that Tesla hasn’t even sought permits that would allow it to test and operate robotaxis. The true fundamentals of this company still make absolutely no sense and frankly I’m not sure how people can have conviction in Elon’s predictions. If it isn’t clear, I definitely would not recommend buying the stock.
Retail Sales People may be complaining about higher interest rates, but it does not appear to be slowing down the consumer. Retail sales climbed 0.7% in the month of March, which is easily topped the estimate of 0.3%. Compared to last year, sales were up an impressive 4.0%. Areas of strength continued to be nonstore retailers, which were up 11.3% compared to last year and food services and drinking places, which were up 6.5% over the same time period. Areas that continued to weigh on the report were furniture & home furnishing stores (-6.1%), electronics and appliance stores (-0.6%), and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-0.6%). While energy prices have increased lately and gasoline stations saw an increase of 2.1% compared to February, compared to last year sales were actually down 0.7%. This makes the retail sales number even more impressive considering the fact that if gas stations were excluded from the headline number, it would have been up 4.4% compared to last year. Overall, this report provides further proof that the consumer remains resilient. This could bring into question the number of rates cuts this year. If the consumer remains strong, we may only see one or two cuts this year. Value Companies With the market’s recent highs, we have had a few companies that reached their target sell price. We sold those companies and now we’re sitting on a large amount of cash. We were considering investing into an oil and/or natural gas company because based on the valuations they are still not that expensive. One thing that has concerned me is that we are probably near the peak for gasoline consumption, but oil is also used in chemicals with a big demand coming from plastics. Approximately 102 million barrels of oil are produced every day and roughly 60 million barrels go to diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Only 12 million of that ends up in chemicals. What concerned me even more is how all the oil companies like Chevron, Shell and Saudi Aramco have a big push to produce more for chemicals. For instance, Shell opened a chemical complex with capacity to produce about 1.6 million tons of plastic pellets per year. Saudi Aramco is working on turning 4 million barrels of crude oil per day into chemicals by the year 2030, today just 1 million barrels go into chemicals. For many years China has been a major consumer of plastic and they accounted for 70% of plastic demand. Now they are producing their own plastic capacity, which is exceeding demand. On top of all this, you have the push for recycling plastics and statistics show that only 10% or less of plastic gets recycled. Even a doubling of that over the next few years would mean less oil needed for plastics. Recycled plastics are roughly 50% more expensive than virgin plastic, but I believe that will come down in future years. In summary, at this point it does not make any sense that I can see to invest in an oil company or the chemical companies. It may look like they could be on sale, but with the large supply going forward sales and earnings could decline, which would mean they are currently fully priced. The abundance of plastics is estimated to go on until the year 2030. So…. the search for that great value company to add our portfolio continues! Home Owners Insurance You hear and read that insurance companies are dropping homeowners for no reason. Well, it turns out that insurance companies are becoming wiser on how to verify that policy owners are following the rules. To keep costs and risks down, insurance companies are now using drones, satellites, and airplanes to take aerial photos of your house. If you neglected to tell the insurance company that you have a pool, trampoline, a roof in bad shape or yard debris and hanging tree branches that are fire hazards, these will show up in the aerial views. You may think this is unfair, but when you sign your policy, you agree to home visits to verify that you’re telling the truth. Another question for consumers, is it fair for you to pay the same insurance premium with a brand-new roof then your next-door neighbor whose roof is 25 years old? At first thought it seems unfair that insurance companies can take pictures of your home from the sky, but if you neglected to tell them the truth about that pool or trampoline, maybe they have the right to drop you. In the long run, this could help insurance companies keep premiums lower for those who follow the rules and disclosed to the insurance company all the insurable risks that they have. Avoiding Social Security Reductions Caused by Pensions If you receive a pension from work that was not covered by Social Security, you may see a reduction in any Social Security benefits you are entitled to which includes benefits from your own earnings or any spousal benefits you are claiming. This is caused by the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset. Keep in mind, if you earned a pension from a job where you also paid into Social Security, you will not see any reduction. One of the common pension systems we see in California is CalSTRS for teachers. Teachers do not pay into Social Security so their pension will reduce their Social Security amount. One way to get around this is by taking a “refund” from the pension. This allows you to withdraw all your contributions plus interest and roll them into your own retirement account so you can invest how you would like, and you will no longer have any reduction to your social security benefits, including any spousal benefits. The reason this works is because the refund only includes your own contributions, not the contributions made by the employer. This doesn’t work with all pensions as some lump sum options include employer contributions, so the same Social Security reduction would apply. Taking a refund from CalSTRS is not appropriate for everyone. If you are close to retirement or have been part of the CalSTRS system for many years, it likely makes sense to stay with it to receive your pension and any Social Security reduction that comes along with it. However, if you are younger, have a limited earnings history with CalSTRS, or are entitled to sizable Social Security Spousal or Survivor benefits, rolling over your CalSTRS pension to a retirement account may make sense so you get the benefit of both your pension dollars and Social Security. Service Fees Service fees at Restaurant just drive me crazy. My wife and I went to a beautiful brunch at the Rancho Bernardo Inn and they first told us the price was $85 per person. I thought it was a little high, until I saw the nice spread, they did. I thought OK beautiful restaurant and a very large buffet, I’ll pay the $85 per person. We enjoyed the brunch and then I got the bill and discovered on top of the $170, they added a $49 service charge. When I asked what that was for, they said it goes to the waitress, the kitchen, and the staff. So, I asked if the bill already included the tip? With hesitation, they said yes. If you do the math, $49 divided by $170 is over 28%. I normally tip about 20% for good service. So, when you dine out, receive your bill, and see a service charge on top of the food and beverage charge, do you also add a tip? Copper Price Many commodities have been rising lately, including copper which last week hit $4.25 per pound. Like many things in 2024, year to date copper is up around 9%. Unlike gold which is up around 15% year-to-date, copper has many industrial uses like wiring. If oil prices continue to increase, that could send people back to buy more electric vehicles, which require quite a bit of copper. Companies that come to mind in this area would be Rio Tinto and Freeport-McMoRan. U.S. Postal Service The cost of a US stamp could hit $.73 come July if the Postal Regulatory Commission approves the US Postal Service’s request for the 7.4% increase. If you feel that it seems the price for stamps is rising rather quickly, you would be correct. From 2010 to 2020 stamp prices rose seven times and if the Postal Regulatory Commission approves this increase, it would be the sixth time in just four years. The US Postal Service did not give any specific reasons as to why they need to raise the price of a stamp, all they said was the price increase is necessary because of the rising cost for delivering mail. That sounds rather weak to me. If I had to speculate why, I think the price of mail is going up because the volume is declining but the service is still costing the same to get less mail to your home. However, when I open my mailbox every day, there still seems to be quite a bit of mail there. Could it be the post office is mismanaging their operation? Investing in Bitcoin There’s been a big push for Bitcoin by the CEO of Blackrock, which is the largest investment company in the country. This means when he speaks, people tend to listen. He has become a Bitcoin bull since they came out with the iShares Bitcoin Trust. I researched to see if I could find how much he has personally invested in Bitcoin, but unfortunately, I couldn’t find any concrete data. Personally, I don’t believe he holds any. Himself and some other Wall Street executives have tried to get brokers to allocate just one percent of their portfolio into bitcoin. In reality, that would not do very much for investors. Keep in mind if you have a $100,000 portfolio, 1% would only be $1000. If Bitcoin were to double that would only be a one percent return in your portfolio. In my opinion, such small allocations do not move the needle for your portfolio and ultimately, I believe they serve little value. I believe the only reason why people like Larry Fink are pushing Bitcoin is the greed on Wall Street. They’re just trying to push people into Bitcoin because they know there’s limited volume and this could increase fees for doing nothing other than talking up a hype investment. I continue to believe Bitcoin is not a real asset as it does not generate cash flows, provide much tangible value, and ultimately there’s nothing to analyze on it to derive its intrinsic value. As far as the talk of it being a currency is still a silly idea. The best currency is one that provides the most stability, not one with the volatility of Bitcoin. Just in case you’re unsure, we are still against investing in Bitcoin even as a speculative investment. Real Estate Investors Many people and real estate investors just look at the cost of the real estate, but there is so much more to it. A smart investor must look at the affordability of homes. The housing affordability index has dropped to levels not seen since the late 80s when the index was at 100. After the Great Recession in 2008, the affordability index rose dramatically to over 200 as rates fell and prices for homes stabilized. The affordability index, according to the National Association of Realtors, looks at family incomes, mortgage rates, the price of the home, property taxes, insurance costs, maintenance and repairs. When one adds it all up, you get a pretty ugly picture for the housing market. Home maintenance costs across the country on average are $6663 per year, which is an increase of 8.3% from one year ago. It’s also important to note that 50% of owner-occupied homes across the US were built 44 years ago. Keep in mind that repairs go up as the house gets older. Local governments are also pushing harder for more taxes from homeowners to meet their strained budgets. According to real estate data firm, Attom, property taxes were up 4.1% from 2022. Add it all up and I don’t care what people say, I just don’t see how housing prices can rise much above current levels for years to come. With today’s market don’t buy a house thinking you’re making great investment, buy a house to raise your family to live in. Entrepreneur Ideas I’m always impressed with simple ideas that make money like laundromats and vending machines. The first vending machine in the US sold gum back in 1888, today there are over 7 million vending machines doing business in the U.S. Entrepreneurs can make a good living off of vending machines, but don’t think it’s easy work. The cost of a machine is around $1000-$2000 and stocking a machine averages around $250/month. The income per machine is about $350/month and it will take about 2 to 3 hours per week of your time. If an entrepreneur would spend about 50 to 60 hours per week and had around 20 machines, they could earn around $100,000 per year. I just love capitalism and American business. There are no barriers to entry here if someone wants to do the work. Chinese Government I have said for many years that people do not understand the major differences between China and the United States. Let me give you a good example of how different things are in China. Here in the US, if you get yourself too far into debt, you can file bankruptcy and move on with your life. In China, there is no such thing as bankruptcy, you carry that debt for the rest of your life or until it is paid off. As I have said, China controls the country. If you cannot pay your debts in China, the government can seize your salary and restrict you from getting a government job. That may sound somewhat normal, but in addition to that, since everything is run by the government, they can restrict you from riding the high-speed trains and air travel. Forget about going on that vacation, if the government says no then you’re not going. Even if you try to go on vacation, the government will not let you stay in nice hotels and authorities can detain you if you don’t comply. Could you imagine if the US government tried to tell you that you can no longer take a vacation and where you can and can’t stay? China is a communist country and the government has major control over their people, businesses and the press. When investing in China, please understand it is not run at all like the United States.
March CPI The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report spooked investors and sent the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June to around 20%, which was a sharp drop from the greater than 50% chance that was priced in before the data was released. The concern came as headline CPI was 3.5% over the last 12 months, which topped the estimate of 3.4% and core CPI rose 3.8% from a year ago, compared with the estimate of 3.7%. Last month the annual rate for headline CPI was 3.2% and for core CPI it was 3.8%. Energy prices were a benefit to headline CPI over the last year or so, but with the recent increase in energy we are beginning to see them not benefit the headline number as much and I soon worry they will cause the headline number to top the core CPI reading. In the March report, energy was up 2.1%, but as we lap the easy comparisons from last year the annual increase could climb substantially which would cause the headline CPI to increase. Shelter continues to be a major weight on the numbers as the index climbed 5.7% compared to last year and accounted for over 60% of the climb in core CPI. Transportation services were also a major negative as they climbed 10.7% compared to last year. I believe this can largely be attributed to rising energy prices. Also, motor vehicle insurance continues to be a major negative as it saw an increase of 22.2% over the last year. While this report wasn’t overly positive, I would like to wait and see the PCE release on April 26th before abandoning the idea for a potential of three rate cuts this year. March PPI The March Producer Price Index (PPI) report looked much more favorable than the CPI. Headline PPI rose 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate and core PPI matched the estimate as it also rose 0.2% in the month. On a 12-month basis, PPI rose 2.1% which was the biggest gain since April 2023. While that may sound concerning, the inflation rate is near the Fed’s target so I would not say that is problematic. Core PPI rose 2.4% over the last year, which was the highest since September. Like the headline number, I don’t believe this is problematic considering the rate is still very reasonable in relation to the Fed’s 2% target. Investing Highs and Lows I love to read information from smart people like Daniel Kahneman, who unfortunately passed away at age 90 on March 27. He was a pioneer in behavioral economics, although he felt he was really a psychologist. If investors would listen to his advice, their returns would probably be much higher and their psychological well-being would be far better when it came to investing. He mentions that people who lost on an investment feel at least twice as much pain as the gains feel pleasant. He also discusses how people do not incorporate all available information and people believe that short streaks in a random process enables them to predict what will come next. Interestingly, he also points out that based on research of asking people if they want to take a risk with an 80% chance of success, most people say yes. However, if you flip-flop that around and ask if they incurred the same risk with a 20% chance of failure, they say no. Obviously the risk is the same, but the psychology is different. I believe this is why many people get into bad investments. Sales people just focus on the positive side and leave the unsuspecting investor to do their own risk analysis. Semiconductor Industry While the semiconductor industry is likely to continue growing, I do worry about China hurting the growth of US semiconductor companies. Shares of chip companies like Intel and Advanced Micro Devices fell after the Wall Street Journal reported that China is ordering the country’s largest telecommunications carriers to cease use of foreign chips. According to the Journal, Chinese officials issued the directive earlier this year for the telecom systems to replace non-Chinese core processors by 2027. China also recently set new guidelines to remove U.S. chips from government computers and servers. The problem here is China still remains a major market for US chip companies as the country accounted for 27% of Intel’s revenue in 2023 and AMD generated 15% of sales from China. Data from S&P Global showed that U.S. chip giants Intel, Broadcom, Qualcomm and Marvell Technology all generate more revenue from China compared with the U.S. The relationship with China is definitely worth keeping an eye on if you are investing in semiconductor companies, especially since most of them now trade at lofty valuations. To Reinvest or Not Reinvest Dividends From a retirement planning standpoint, it can be helpful to not reinvest dividends, especially in non-retirement accounts. In a non-retirement account, or a taxable account as they are called, dividends are taxed exactly the same way whether they are reinvested or not. In retirement, the focus shifts from accumulation to building tax-advantaged cashflow. When a dividend is automatically reinvested, it repurchases the same holding it came from. On the other hand if it is paid in cash, it will remain in the account where it can be invested or withdrawn. Therefore, when a dividend is paid in cash and incurs its normal tax, that cash can be accessed without any additional tax consequences. Alternatively, when dividends are automatically reinvested which is still taxable, if cashflow is needed, sells will also need to be made to generate that cash which can result in additional capital gain taxes. In a way, you’re getting taxed twice to create the same amount of cashflow. From a tax perspective, if a dividend is produced from a holding that is held for more than 60 days within the 121-day period surrounding the ex-dividend date, it will be considered a qualified dividend and taxed at the lower long-term capital gain rate. That criterion is a little technical but basically it means dividends from long-term holdings are taxed at the lower rate. It is popular to have dividends reinvested but this can force unnecessary taxation in retirement and can limit other planning opportunities like Roth Conversions. Tax Refunds April 15th is fast approaching and 40% of Americans are really counting on a tax refund to help their financial situation. That is up 4% from the 36% last year. It really doesn’t surprise me because many people look at that as a windfall, not realizing that they gave the government a free loan of the money for the past year. Depending on your income, people generally should be shooting for a refund of $100 or to have a tax bill of $100. If one were to receive a $1200 refund in taxes, they may be excited but unfortunately that could’ve given them the opportunity to put $100 a month in a 401(k) or IRA and receive a tax reduction along with tax deferred growth. AI Legal Issues It seems these days you can’t pick up a paper or turn on the TV and not hear something about artificial intelligence. One thing you’re not hearing about is the legal issues that are starting to arise. Section 230 protects social media companies from being sued, but that is not going to extend to the AI companies or companies that use artificial intelligence. In early 2023, even Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch said, “Artificial intelligence generates poetry. It generates polemics today that would be content that goes beyond picking, choosing, analyzing, or digesting content. And that is not protected.” That sounds pretty concerning to me, but as time passes, we will see many more lawsuits against not just the AI companies, but also companies that use AI for the general public to read or see. This could definitely slow down the growth of AI and the elevated prices that are being paid for stocks related to AI. Venture Capital Venture capital is one of the more speculative areas of investing. In 2023 venture capitalists only raised $67 billion, which was the worst year since 2016. In the first quarter of 2024, investors seemed a little more comfortable with taking on some extra risk. Venture capitalists have raised $30 billion in the first quarter of 2024, which on an annualized basis would amount to $120 billion, close to twice the amount raised in 2023. Tax Brackets The current President and the media try to promote that the wealthy pay no tax or should be paying their fair share. Numbers from the IRS in 2021 prove that is totally incorrect. According to the data from the IRS, the top one percent, which is about 1.5 million returns with earnings above $682,500, paid 45.8% of the total income tax. However, they only make 26.3% of the country’s adjusted gross income. Compare that with the bottom half of earners, which was 76.8 million returns with adjusted gross income of $46,500, they only paid 2.3% of all the income tax. What the media and President Biden point to are the exceptional years for certain corporations or individuals who received large tax write offs for such things as setting up a foundation, a large charitable deduction, maybe some type of large loss on an investment or perhaps investing in equipment. These types of events generally do not occur every year. If one were to look at the wealthy’s tax returns over 10 years, they would see the numbers that I discussed in the beginning are very true. World Population I remember back about 40 years ago or so there was a big concern about overpopulation and the world running out of resources. Now, the US fertility rate stands at 1.7 births per woman and is expected to remain around that level for next 30 years. In 2007, it was 2.12 children per woman. If you do the math, you can understand the problem. If you have two parents only producing 1.7 children, the population will decline overtime. As our population gets older, they tend to want to slowdown and not work as much or maybe not at all. They live off their investments (hopefully they listen to us at Wilsey Asset Management and funded their 401(k) program) along with government programs. If the younger generation is shrinking, the only way to support a larger aging population is to increase taxes, or perhaps extend the retirement age, which in my opinion is probably the better way to go. One problem is if you increase taxation too much on the younger generation, they will lose their incentive to work and be less productive. There are some things that could save our country like immigration and AI along with automation. Immigration can immediately bring in working age people to produce in the economy. AI and automation should not be feared because what it will do is instead of taking maybe three or four people to do a job, it may only take one or two to do that same job. Throughout history, technological advancements have always been feared considering concerns all the way back to the Industrial Revolution. Technology advancements are coming faster than they used to, but if we use them properly, they can help the economy become more productive, which will help support an aging population who can then enjoy their golden years. California Politics The games that California plays with our voting system is just criminal. A coalition of California businesses is fighting Governor Newsom and his Democratic allies over the fact that they can increase local tax in California with a simple majority. The business coalition is putting on the ballot for November that for any tax increases, it would take a 2/3 approval, not the simple majority. They are calling it the taxpayer protection act. Sacramento is fighting this and has asked the California Supreme Court to take the rare step of taking it off the ballot, saying it’s unconstitutional. In case that doesn’t work, democratic legislatures are putting on the ballot that the taxpayer protection act would require a 2/3 majority to become law.